UN Agency: Dangerous Temperature Increase 'More Likely Than Not'
2023-05-18
LRC
TXT
大字
小字
滚动
全页
1The United Nations' weather agency reports that world temperatures are likely to reach dangerous levels within the next five years.
2The World Meteorological Organization, or WMO, released a report on the subject Wednesday.
3It said the 1.5 degrees Celsius rise in temperatures might be temporary.
4But, the agency noted, such a rise would break the limit sought by the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
5In 2018, scientists said a temperature increase past 1.5 degrees Celsius would result in death, damage and destruction to the world's ecosystems.
6After the 2015 Paris meeting, most nations agreed to try to limit the burning of coal, oil and gas to prevent a temperature increase.
7The new WMO report says the use of those fuels, combined with the weather condition called El Nino, will push temperatures to a dangerous level.
8Adam Scaife is a weather forecaster in Britain who worked on the report.
9He said last year, the WMO said there was a 50 percent chance temperatures would increase by 1.5 degrees by the year 2027.
10This year, the new report says that probability is greater, at 66 percent.
11Scientists from 11 different climate centers around the world produced the report.
12The increase in temperatures is important. But it may be brief, scientists say.
13Report co-writer Leon Hermanson is a climate scientist in Britain.
14He said the report is "more of a barometer of how we are getting close," and that the more times the world's temperature goes above the dangerous level, the closer it gets to staying there.
15But the climate scientists said they do not believe the world's temperatures will pass the 1.5 degree mark for good until the 2030s.
16Petteri Taalas is WMO Secretary-General. The experts, he said, are "sounding the alarm."
17The report, he added, "does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5 Celsius level specified in the Paris Agreement."
18Zeke Hausfather is a climate scientist based in California who did not work on the report.
19He agreed that it is not likely the long-term average would pass 1.5 degrees Celsius until the "early-to-mid 2030s."
20The WMO report also said there is a 98 percent chance that one of the next five years will be the hottest on record.
21The last year that produced an extreme increase was 2016, when temperatures went up by 1.3 degrees Celsius.
22The scientists noted that a weather pattern called La Nina over the last three years produced cooler temperatures.
23The cooler weather made it harder to see the human contribution to the planet's temperatures.
24The experts are concerned about the coming El Nino period.
25"Where there were floods before, there will be droughts," Hermanson said. "And where there were droughts, there might be floods."
26Scientists said the Amazon may be drier than usual, and the Sahel area of Africa may be wetter.
27That is one of the pieces of good news from the report.
28"It's not all doom-and-gloom and heat waves," Hermanson said.
29Another climate scientist who did not work on the report is Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania.
30He said reports like the one from the WMO are too concerned about surface temperatures.
31Instead, he said scientists should be worried about the deep waters of the oceans.
32That is the part of the Earth that is most affected by human-caused warming.
33He also noted that there is still time to lower carbon emissions and prevent the long-term temperature rise.
34"That's what we need to be focused on," Mann said.
35I'm Ashley Thompson.
1The United Nations' weather agency reports that world temperatures are likely to reach dangerous levels within the next five years. 2The World Meteorological Organization, or WMO, released a report on the subject Wednesday. It said the 1.5 degrees Celsius rise in temperatures might be temporary. But, the agency noted, such a rise would break the limit sought by the 2015 Paris climate agreement. 3In 2018, scientists said a temperature increase past 1.5 degrees Celsius would result in death, damage and destruction to the world's ecosystems. 4After the 2015 Paris meeting, most nations agreed to try to limit the burning of coal, oil and gas to prevent a temperature increase. The new WMO report says the use of those fuels, combined with the weather condition called El Nino, will push temperatures to a dangerous level. 5Adam Scaife is a weather forecaster in Britain who worked on the report. He said last year, the WMO said there was a 50 percent chance temperatures would increase by 1.5 degrees by the year 2027. This year, the new report says that probability is greater, at 66 percent. 6Scientists from 11 different climate centers around the world produced the report. 7The increase in temperatures is important. But it may be brief, scientists say. 8Report co-writer Leon Hermanson is a climate scientist in Britain. He said the report is "more of a barometer of how we are getting close," and that the more times the world's temperature goes above the dangerous level, the closer it gets to staying there. 9But the climate scientists said they do not believe the world's temperatures will pass the 1.5 degree mark for good until the 2030s. 10Petteri Taalas is WMO Secretary-General. The experts, he said, are "sounding the alarm." The report, he added, "does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5 Celsius level specified in the Paris Agreement." 11Zeke Hausfather is a climate scientist based in California who did not work on the report. He agreed that it is not likely the long-term average would pass 1.5 degrees Celsius until the "early-to-mid 2030s." 12The WMO report also said there is a 98 percent chance that one of the next five years will be the hottest on record. The last year that produced an extreme increase was 2016, when temperatures went up by 1.3 degrees Celsius. 13The scientists noted that a weather pattern called La Nina over the last three years produced cooler temperatures. The cooler weather made it harder to see the human contribution to the planet's temperatures. 14The experts are concerned about the coming El Nino period. 15"Where there were floods before, there will be droughts," Hermanson said. "And where there were droughts, there might be floods." 16Scientists said the Amazon may be drier than usual, and the Sahel area of Africa may be wetter. 17That is one of the pieces of good news from the report. 18"It's not all doom-and-gloom and heat waves," Hermanson said. 19Another climate scientist who did not work on the report is Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania. He said reports like the one from the WMO are too concerned about surface temperatures. Instead, he said scientists should be worried about the deep waters of the oceans. That is the part of the Earth that is most affected by human-caused warming. 20He also noted that there is still time to lower carbon emissions and prevent the long-term temperature rise. 21"That's what we need to be focused on," Mann said. 22I'm Ashley Thompson. 23Dan Friedell adapted this story for Learning English based on reports by Reuters and the Associated Press. 24___________________________________________________________________ 25Words in This Story 26barometer -n. something that is used to indicate or predict something 27alarm -n. a device that makes a loud sound as a warning 28contribution -n. something that is done to cause something to happen 29drought -n. a period of time with dry conditions and very little rain 30doom-and-gloom -expression. a way to discuss bad news or feelings 31focus -v. to pay careful attention to a topic 32___________________________________________________________________ 33We want to hear from you. Do you think the world will be able to stop temperatures from rising so fast? 34Here is how our comment system works: 35Each time you return to comment on the Learning English site, you can use your account and see your comments and replies to them. Our comment policy is here.